Market researched DisplayBank has released its forecasts for the worldwide television market, and they predict that the number of TVs shipped will increase 50% from 196 million this year to 290 million units in 2015. This year, about 38% of those sets will be LCD TVs; by 2015 this proportion is expected to grow to 66%.
So if you’re going to go by the numbers, odds are two out of three that you’ll eventually own an LCD TV. Why is that?
The main reason is that there is no viable competition for smaller sized sets. Only CRT (picture tube) televisions are priced lower than LCDs in the smaller sizes, but the actual dollar difference is so small at that point that many people will opt for the advantages of a thin, sharp LCD image. At the other end, the average selling price of a 52″ 1080p LCD is now lower than that of a 50″ 1080p plasma HDTV. (Plasma still has a distinct price advantage at this size in 720p resolutions, but buyers are clearly moving to 1080p.) So LCD now owns the sizes where the vast majority of the sales are going to occur.
The only thing that could upset DisplayBank’s forecast would be a sudden shift to another technology. If a breakthrough in plasma panel production lowered costs significantly, or if one of the novel technologies — such as OLED — made some major advances, then LCD might not do as well as predicted. But for the moment, it looks as though LCD technology will be the winner.