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Golden Globe Predictions

January 4, 2018 | Author: Ibex Marketing

The Golden Globes are this Sunday.

It seems like only yesterday when we were recapping the nominations. Time moves fast during the holidays.

There are lots of things to love about the Globes, as compared to other award shows anyway. First off, it’s one of the few that celebrates both film *and* television. That means the biggest stars from both worlds are all together in one room; a rarity.

What’s more unique (and fun) is the fact that attendees can drink at their tables. As such, the acceptance speeches often end up being much more loose and hilarious than other shows.

One more benefit the Globes have over, say, the Oscars? Unpredictability.

Because the Globes are one of the first award shows out of the gate, the favorites of the season have yet to be completely solidified. By the time we get to the Oscars, patterns have been established and it’s typically easier to predict the winners.

The Globes also have a significantly smaller voting body compared to other shows. The Oscars, Grammys, and Emmys all have thousands of voting members. The Globes don’t even eclipse 100. So just a few passionate members can swing the vote.

So yes, the Globes aren’t the easiest awards to predict. That doesn’t mean we don’t have fun trying. Here are our predictions for the top categories at this weekend’s Golden Globes.

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: The Disaster Artist; Get Out; The Greatest Showman; I, Tonya; Lady Bird

The winner will be: There are only two potential winners here, “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.” These two films are certain to be Best Picture nominees for the Oscars and received outstanding reviews. In our opinion, it’s a dead heat. We predict “Lady Bird,” if for other reason than it should be fresher in the minds of most voters. “Lady Bird” is still expanding, whereas “Get Out” was released nearly a year ago.

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

The nominees are: Call Me By Your Name; Dunkirk; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The winner will be: The voters have a tough choice here. All of the nominees are truly deserving and have a case to make. Historically, the Globes like to reward prestige pictures with A-list stars. No film this year fits that bill quite like “The Post.” However, the Globes like to follow the buzz, and “The Post” hasn’t even been released in the majority of American markets yet. “Dunkirk,” however, is a prestige picture that was released months ago. It may also benefit from the fact that many cinephiles–ourselves included–think Christopher Nolan is beyond overdue for some awards recognition. As such, we expect “Dunkirk” to emerge victorious in a race that is almost as exciting as the film itself.

Best Television Series (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: black-ish; The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Master of None; SMILF; Will & Grace

The winner will be: The television categories are typically much harder to predict than the film categories. The Globes do not mind rewarding smaller, newer shows compared to more established ones. “Will & Grace” presents an interesting challenge in that case, given that it is simultaneously a new show *and* an established one. All of the others shows are relatively new, so in that case, it is usually best to pick the show with the most buzz/star power. Aziz Ansari is one of the biggest comedy stars of the moment, and his show “Master of None” recently completed its highly popular second season. While any of these shows could potentially win, “Master of None” is most likely to emerge as master of this category.

Best Television Series (Drama)

The nominees are: The Crown; Game of Thrones; The Handmaid’s Tale; Stranger Things; This Is Us

The winner will be: Like with many of the other categories, any winner here would be a worthy victor. Indeed, four of these shows were deservedly nominated last year as well. The one that wasn’t? “The Handmaid’s Tale,” our predicted winner. As we said earlier, the Globes like to reward newer shows, and “Tale” was one of the biggest events of television this year and created a cultural firestorm. “This Is Us” could ride its blockbuster appeal here, especially since it didn’t win for its first season, but we’re going with “Tale.”

Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: Steve Carell in Battle of the Sexes; Ansel Elgort in Baby Driver; James Franco in The Disaster Artist; Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman; Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out

The winner will be: Kaluuya has a pretty strong case to make here, as the star of the film that easily could take the top prize. But as beneficial as Kaluuya was to “Get Out,” “The Disaster Artist” wouldn’t even exist without Franco, as he directed/wrote the film. Voters will often pick one category to reward a person for their work in a multitude of fields. We predict that such will be the case here.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

The nominees are: Timothee Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread; Tom Hanks in The Post; Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour; Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq.

The winner will be: Four screen legends against a newcomer, yet it’s a newcomer who enters the awards season with a lion’s share of the buzz. Chalamet is terrific in several different films this year, and that could lead him to a win. However, Chalamet (likely) has a long career ahead of him, whereas Oldman already has had an amazing career. Despite a plethora of amazing performances, Oldman has few industry awards to his name, and there has been an active campaign to get him his first Oscar for his rousing performance as Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour.” Expect that campaign to take flight here.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul; Helen Mirren in The Leisure Seeker; Margot Robbie in I, Tonya; Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird; Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

The winner will be: All of the nominees are excellent, but the race is pretty weak. Ronan is  phenomenal in “Lady Bird,” the film that we predict will ultimately take the top prize. Her star is on the rise, and the Globes love rewarding actors on the cusp of superstardom. If anyone walks away with this trophy other than Ronan, we’ll be pretty stunned.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

The nominees are: Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game; Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water; Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Meryl Streep in The Post; Michelle Williams in All the Money in the World

The winner will be: This race could go several different ways. On the one hand, Meryl Streep is an awards favorite, and “The Post” is one of her best performances. On the other hand, Hawkins nails a challenging role in the film that has the most nominations. And on the other other hand, McDormand is riding a wave of buzz for her deeply felt turn in “Billboards.” There’s no clear frontrunner, but we’ll go with Hawkins on degree of difficulty alone.

Best Actor in a Television Series (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: Anthony Anderson in black-ish; Aziz Ansari in Master of None; Kevin Bacon in I Love Dick; William H. Macy in Shameless; Eric McCormack in Will & Grace

The winner will be: Like the category above, this race could go several different ways. “I Love Dick” is the newest show, and Bacon is a comeback star who earned rave reviews. That’s usually a pretty good recipe for the Globes. However, Ansari is yet to win a Globe for his outstanding work on “Master of None,” a show that still inspires plenty of buzz. Similar to James Franco, we think Ansari wins here as a tribute to the wide breadth of his work.

Best Actor in a Television Series (Drama)

The nominees are: Jason Bateman in Ozark; Sterling K. Brown in This Is Us; Freddie Highmore in The Good Doctor; Bob Odenkirk in Better Call Saul; Liev Schreiber in Ray Donovan

The winner will be: It’s easy to overthink when it comes to predicting awards. You can get caught up in thinking about historical trends, buzz, and a bevy of other external factors. Then you have to realize that voters are just humans who respond emotionally just like everyone else. For that reason, Brown should win this race handily for his perpetually heartbreakingly good work in “This Is Us.”

Best Actress in a Television Series (Comedy/Musical)

The nominees are: Pamela Adlon in Better Things; Alison Brie in GLOW; Rachel Brosnahan in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Issa Rae in Insecure; Frankie Shaw in SMILF

The winner will be: The Globes love breakout stars. Did anyone fit the bill of breakout star of 2017 more than Issa Rae, the star/writer/creator of HBO’s best new show since “Silicon Valley?” Just like the previous category, no need to overthink this one. Ironically, Rae’s chances here are pretty secure.

Best Actress in a Television Series (Drama)

The nominees are: Caitriona Balfe in Outlander; Claire Foy in The Crown; Maggie Gyllenhaal in The Deuce; Katherine Langford in 13 Reasons Why; Elisabeth Moss in The Handmaid’s Tale

The winner will be: Before this year, Elisabeth Moss could already say that she was a cast member of two of the greatest shows ever produced (“Mad Men,” “The West Wing”). She didn’t win a Globe for either show. Now, “Handmaid’s Tale” is the third television phenom on her resume. And while it’s cliche, the phrase “the third time’s the charm” seems pretty apt here.